Commonwealth Club of California Podcast Michael Shermer: Truth! What Is It? And How To Find It!
Mar 1, 2026
Michael Shermer, founding publisher of Skeptic magazine and author with a PhD in history of science, explores what we mean by truth and how to find it. He walks through scientific fallibility, Bayesian reasoning, consensus formation, replication problems, pattern-seeking and coincidences, and how myths and religion differ from empirical claims. Practical tips on spotting misinformation and verifying digital claims round out the conversation.
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Patternicity Makes Randomness Feel Designed
- Humans perceive patterns in random clusters and label them meaningful, a tendency Shermer calls patternicity.
- He uses iPod shuffle and constellations to show randomness produces apparent clustering people mistake for design.
Book Coincidences Show Probability Inevitable
- Shermer tells Martin Gardner and Anthony Hopkins book-finding coincidences to illustrate law inevitability in huge sample spaces.
- He estimates ~650 billion books exist, so rare book coincidences become inevitable somewhere.
Religious Narratives As Literary Truths
- Shermer suggests religious stories often function as mythical or literary truths rather than empirical facts.
- He compares them to fiction that reveals deeper human themes, like Austen or Tolkien conveying truths about human nature.
