Sustainability Now Demystifying Climate Scenarios
Jan 31, 2025
James Edwards, director of the New York Climate Risk Center and economist, breaks down climate scenario analysis in plain terms. He explains accessible tools, why you do not need a supercomputer, and the difference between narrative, quantified, and model-driven approaches. Short, practical guidance on combining methods to assess risks and inform investment choices.
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Scenario Analysis Is A Decision Tool
- Scenario analysis asks "what if" to reveal plausible climate futures and their portfolio impacts.
- James Edwards stresses scenarios turn uncertainty into decision-ready risk information you can act on.
Shell's 1970s Example
- Shell used scenario analysis in the 1970s to respond to oil supply shocks and succeeded.
- Mike Disabato uses that historical example to frame climate scenarios as similarly strategic today.
Start With Simple Approaches
- You don't need a supercomputer or an army of experts to start scenario analysis.
- Use low-fi, low-cost approaches first and complement complex models with simpler methods.