Eurodollar University Texas Just Triggered a Housing Market Warning
Mar 11, 2026
Discusses rising mortgage delinquencies and mounting regional housing stress, with a spotlight on Texas cities. Explores why falling interest rates have not restarted homebuying or revived prices. Highlights links between local unemployment, loan types and worsening borrower performance. Frames stagnant sales as evidence the broader economy never fully recovered.
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Lower Rates Haven't Revived Housing Because Jobs Didn't
- Housing sales remain stuck at 'bust' levels despite falling mortgage rates.
- Jeff Snider ties this to a weak labor market: six million more jobs since 2019 masks an employment deficit that prevents buyers from returning.
The Employment Gap Is The Real Labor Story
- The headline 'six million more jobs' is misleading because the economy has a much larger employment gap.
- Snider quantifies the employment deficit at about 8.7 million payrolls short as of Feb 2026, which chills housing demand.
Regional Delinquency Spikes Signal Local Labor Weakness
- Mortgage delinquencies are rising regionally even if national rates stay low.
- Snider highlights Texas cities like Laredo at ~24% delinquency and links higher delinquencies to local unemployment and lower-income ZIP codes.