Iran: The Latest Shock and awe but no regime change: one week of Trump’s Iran war
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Mar 6, 2026 Col. Simon Diggins, a former British Army officer with Middle East operational experience, and Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at RUSI, unpack week one of the US‑Israeli campaign. They discuss progress toward US aims, Iran’s missile and drone posture, naval threats in the Gulf, regional spillover and whether regime change is realistic. Short, sharp analysis of military moves and what to watch next.
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Military Gains May Not Deliver Political Goals
- The US and Israel have made measurable military progress but may struggle to translate it into political outcomes.
- Matthew Savill notes air superiority, missile-city strikes and loitering Reaper drones are degrading Iran's offensive capacity.
Striking Missile Cities Creates A Launch Bottleneck
- Targeting missile cities and launchers has created a logistics bottleneck that reduces Iran's ability to fire ballistic salvos.
- Savill cites imagery of launchers struck and Reaper drones loitering to quickly cue strikes.
Drones Shift The Cost Balance Of Defense
- Iranian drone use is cheap and effective but forces defenders to choose costly interceptors or risk damage.
- Col. Simon Diggins compares drone economics to expensive anti-ballistic missiles and notes heavy casualty impact in Ukraine.