Money & Macro Talks Why Europe is getting safer, despite migration | prof. Paolo Pinotti
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Feb 19, 2026 Paolo Pinotti, professor of economics at Bocconi studying immigration, labor markets and crime. He unpacks measurement challenges around immigrant overrepresentation in prisons. He explores demographics, legal status, deportation effects, enclave trade-offs, and how migration can coincide with falling European crime. He also discusses policy choices on dispersal, labor access, and integration.
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Demographics And Legal Status Drive Risk
- Immigrant overrepresentation partly reflects demographics: migrants are typically young single males who face higher crime risk.
- Lack of legal status often prevents work, raising incentives to join illicit activities.
Italian Snapshot: Most Incarcerated Foreigners Were Undocumented
- A snapshot of Italy showed 95% of incarcerated foreigners were undocumented about ten years ago.
- Pinotti notes legal immigrants had crime probabilities similar to natives, implicating illegality as the driver.
Composition And Opportunity Cost Matter
- Composition of immigrant inflows differs by destination: Anglo-Saxon countries attracted many high-skilled migrants, lowering average criminality.
- Opportunity cost of crime was higher in the U.S. because undocumented workers could more often find legal jobs.