7am Is a New Nuclear Arms Race Brewing?
Feb 4, 2026
Paul Dean, Vice President at the Nuclear Threat Initiative and former New START implementer, provides experienced analysis on nuclear arms control. He explains what New START did and how it was negotiated. He outlines why Russia suspended it, the risks if it collapses, and how China’s opaque buildup complicates future stability. He warns about the prospects of renewed arms competition.
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How START Built Predictable Deterrence
- The New START Treaty limited U.S. and Russian strategic warheads and delivery systems and included extensive verification measures.
- Those verification measures created predictability and reduced risks of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation.
A Fast, High-Level Treaty Example
- New START was negotiated rapidly in about two years, which is fast for arms control.
- Paul Dean notes such treaties usually require top-level presidential focus to succeed.
Suspension Left START On Life Support
- Russia suspended participation and effectively put the treaty on life support by linking it to the Ukraine war.
- That suspension has left the treaty unlikely to be extended without major near-term diplomacy.