Episode 71: Rebroadcast - Using PreMortem Analysis to Make Better Decisions with Gary A. Klein

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Jun 12, 2023

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Gary A. Klein

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ANECDOTE

Firefighters' Intuitive Pattern Matching

Experienced firefighters don't compare many options; they pattern-match quickly from past prototypes.
Their intuition is built from years of experience that directs attention and expectations.

INSIGHT

Imagine To Evaluate Intuition

Experts evaluate an intuitive option by mentally simulating its likely outcome step-by-step.
Decision-making combines rapid pattern recognition with deliberate mental simulation.

ANECDOTE

Miracle On The Hudson Example

Captain Chesley Sullenberger rejected standard return-to-airport instinct after simulating outcomes.
He cycled through options until finding the first one with a realistic chance of success: the Hudson landing.

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This week on the show we throw back to one of our most requested episodes, Bryce’s conversation with Dr. Gary Klein.

Gary is the creator of PreMortem Analysis, a powerful tool designed to help leaders understand the ways their plans could fail so that they can ensure that they don’t. In addition to discussing the origins of PreMortem and how it is used, they talk about how humans make decisions and how leaders can make better ones – particularly in these challenging times.

Gary also discusses his latest innovation, a training tool he calls ShadowBox. Dr. Gary A. Klein is a cognitive psychologist and one of the world’s leading experts on human decision making. He is the author of several books, including Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions and Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights. Gary pioneered the naturalistic decision-making movement and is the president of ShadowBox Training.

In this episode:

What is naturalistic decision making and what it reveals about how people make decisions
How Gary analyzed the way in which people really make decisions, particularly under time pressures
What leaders can learn from firefighters in order to make better decisions
What is ShadowBox and how it works

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Bestselling business author Bryce Hoffman and agility expert Marcus Dimbleby talk about decision making, strategy, resilience and leadership with some of the world’s best CEOs, cognitive scientists, writers, and thinkers in this weekly podcast. Each episode offers new ideas and insights you can use to become a better leader and a better thinker – because bad leaders react, good leaders plan, and great leaders think!