The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Will the Fed continue to ease monetary policy in 2026?
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Jan 28, 2026 Preview of the Fed's likely policy path in 2026 and why easing may stall. Discussion of policy inertia, a jobless recovery, and widening views on the neutral rate. Debate over who could reform the central bank and how a united Fed might hamper change. Focus on systematic risk management, gold as a policy signal, ETF counterparty concerns, and extreme nonfinancial preparedness.
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Fed Poised For Inaction Not Easing
- The Fed is unlikely to continue easing policy in 2026 despite disinflationary progress.
- Darius Dale expects the FOMC to lean toward inaction and reactiveness rather than proactive easing.
Market Expects More Cuts Than Fed
- Markets price two 25bp cuts in 2026 while the Fed's December dot plot signaled only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027.
- This divergence reflects market optimism versus FOMC caution about balancing mandates.
Caution And Division Will Stall Cuts
- FOMC members favor proceeding cautiously and view risks to mandates as imbalanced, which supports fewer cuts.
- Darius highlights the wide dispersion in neutral rate views and expects many hawks to use that as justification to resist cuts.