Daniel Davis Deep Dive MIT Prof Ted Postal - Iran - What it Can & Cannot Do
Feb 19, 2026
Ted Postol, MIT professor and missile systems expert, offers a compact technical take on Iran’s strike capabilities and air defenses. He breaks down missile accuracy, urban blast effects, simulations of strikes on Tel Aviv, and why intercepting ballistic warheads is so difficult. He also explores Iran’s inventory, foreign assistance risks, and the limits of military options versus diplomacy.
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Accuracy Gains Multiply Urban Damage
- Improving missile accuracy from 1 km to ~500 m radically increases concentration of strikes on city centers.
- Postol notes Russian help could speed Iran's accuracy improvements and threaten Israel's economic core.
Prioritize Economic Targets In Survival Strategy
- Focus attacks on cities if a regime fights for survival because crippling economy and services undermines an opponent.
- Postol recommends Iran would prioritize city strikes over military targets to maximize societal impact.
Dispersal And Tunnels Reduce Preemption Options
- Fixed Iranian missile sites are vulnerable if known, but many are hidden in tunnels or dispersed on mobile launchers.
- Postol stresses mobile and tunnel-based deployments greatly complicate preemptive strikes.