Ask Haviv Anything Episode 97: Can America and Israel finish the job? A conversation with John Spencer.
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Mar 11, 2026 
John Spencer, a national security and urban warfare analyst, offers sharp analysis rooted in combat and teaching experience. He breaks down tactical moves in the Gulf, U.S. and Israeli targeting aims, and how ambiguity and deception shape strategy. He also examines Iran’s escalation gambit and whether the U.S. has the political will to follow through.
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Large Scale Campaign To Degrade Iran's Key Capabilities
- The US and Israel are conducting a large-scale campaign to degrade Iran's nuclear, missile, and naval capabilities.
- John Spencer notes use of AI in targeting, 5,000 US and 4,000 Israeli strikes, and systematic destruction of Iranian capabilities across domains.
Assess Goals By Formal Statements Not Soundbites
- The administration's publicly stated goals are coherent and consistent across senior officials despite off-the-cuff remarks.
- Spencer argues measure targets by formal statements from the president, secretary of defense, joint chiefs and CENTCOM, not media soundbites.
Ambiguity And Deception To Break Iranian Will
- Intentional ambiguity and deception are being used as strategy to keep Iran uncertain about U.S. escalation thresholds.
- Spencer points to public comments (e.g., boots on the ground) and movements like shifting B-2s to confuse Iranian planning and raise Iranian perceived cost of resistance.