Marketplace All-in-One The inflationary effects of war
Apr 6, 2026
Samantha Fields, tech and labor reporter exploring how AI is reshaping careers. Blake Farmer, health policy and personal finance reporter on Health Savings Accounts and their limits. Kristen Schwab, energy and economics correspondent on oil markets, price controls, and shortages. Mitchell Hartman, inflation and data reporter on a sharp services price jump and how oil feeds broader price rises.
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War Shock Is Pushing Up Near-Term Inflation
- Inflation pressures jumped in March with ISM service prices rising sharply and manufacturing prices up 19% over two months.
- Rising oil — especially diesel — causes a bleed-through raising costs across food, transport, and supply chains according to Mitchell Hartman and Jay Hatfield.
Oil Spike Could Keep Inflation Elevated Through Summer
- Even if the Middle East war ends soon, higher crude prices could keep inflation near 3.5–4% by summer, delaying Fed rate cuts.
- Mark Zandi warns the oil-driven shock is almost immediate and could sustain elevated year-over-year inflation from 3% now to higher by summer.
Don't Use Price Caps To Fix Oil Shortages
- Avoid price caps and subsidies as a long-term fix because they mask scarcity signals and encourage consumption, worsening shortages.
- Catherine Wolfram and Severin Borenstein explain caps spur panic buying and prolong supply problems, recalling 1970s gas lines.