FICC Focus Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY’s Granet
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Mar 12, 2026 Jason Granet, CIO of BNY and macro scenario specialist, talks yield-curve outlooks and risk sizing. He outlines recent shocks reshaping growth and inflation. He explains BNY’s scenario framework and why shocks have long tails. He highlights tactical opportunities from liquidity dislocations and where long-term steepening may come from.
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Energy Shock Reprograms A Constructive 2024
- Jason Granet says the economy entered 2024 with strong stimulus and AI-driven CapEx tailwinds but was then hit by an energy-induced shock that reprograms growth and inflation expectations.
- He warns the shock's market impact lingers longer than the initial move, so recovery to prior oil levels will likely be slow and have long tails.
Prepare With Wide Scenario Bookends
- Granet: BNY runs extensive scenarios and focuses on preparation not prediction to manage uncertainty from geopolitical shocks like Strait disruptions.
- He recommends building wide bookends and using cross-organization debate (BNY Institute) to regularly test theses before acting.
Use Sized Positions To Exploit Dislocations
- Size positions deliberately and set horizons (3–9 months) so you can opportunistically dip into dislocations instead of reacting rashly.
- Granet stresses calibrating position sizes ahead of stress to capture liquid-market opportunities during de-risking events.