The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Did “TACO Trump” just permanently cede control of global energy markets to Iran, part II?
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Mar 24, 2026 Tensions around Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and a new tolling regime for shipping. Signs of slowing global growth from PMIs and threats to Japan’s reflation plan. Liquidity strains in private markets and central bank tools to stabilize currencies. Unusual high-volume futures activity before a major political post and urgent lessons about faster risk management.
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Iran Is Establishing A Toll Regime In The Strait Of Hormuz
- Iran's effective tolling of ships through the Strait of Hormuz signals a structural shift in control over global energy transit.
- Iran has been soliciting payments up to $2 million and may formalize transit fees, creating a mafia-style takeover of a key shipping lane.
Global Growth Is Moderating Across Major Economies
- Leading data show slowing global growth: PMI, consumer confidence, and auto data from the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK point to moderating activity.
- Final Q4 productivity and unit labor cost prints failed to support a productivity boom, with a government shutdown dragging GDP over 100 bps.
Japan CPI Undermines Reflation And Shifts Policy Mix
- Japan's February CPI threatens its reflation strategy and alters policy direction.
- The print supports slower monetary normalization and pushes the Takeichi government toward faster fiscal easing.