Bulwark Takes NEW POLLS: Trump’s Iran War is Deeply Unpopular
Mar 3, 2026
They break down new polls after recent strikes on Iran and what the numbers reveal. Independents and soft supporters show notable opposition. Discussion centers on how unclear goals, potential casualties, and economic frustration could fracture the coalition. They trace historical moments when foreign policy shifted political math and why short-term rallies may not last.
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Approval Spike Still Mirrors Trump Approval
- Early polling shows Trump's airstrikes gained about 20 percentage points from a 21% baseline to ~41% approval.
- CNN finds 59% disapprove and independents split 32% approve / 68% disapprove, signaling limited upside beyond core supporters.
MAGA's Antiwar Identity Cuts Into Support
- MAGA messaging against foreign adventurism makes a pro-war turn politically costly for Trump.
- Sarah Longwell notes Trump, J.D. Vance and MAGA influencers promised 'no stupid wars,' so core voters feel betrayed.
War Fractures Trump's Coalition Not The Opposition
- The strikes are uniting Democrats and many independents against Trump while mostly pleasing Republicans, creating a self-wedge.
- WaPo shows 81% GOP support but independents oppose 59%, indicating a risky fracture rather than a cross-party wedge issue.