The Intelligence from The Economist Talking out his asks: Putin’s NATO demands
Jan 11, 2022
Shoshan Joshi, The Economist's defense editor, and Ryan Avent, their trade and international economics editor, dive into the high-stakes diplomatic tensions surrounding Putin's demands on NATO. They assess the likelihood of a Ukrainian invasion and the ensuing security implications for Europe. The conversation also touches on innovative shifts in remote work post-pandemic and Cuba's intriguing underground garlic trade, revealing the cultural significance of garlic in a land facing food shortages. These topics blend geopolitics with everyday economic challenges.
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Potential Compromises
- Potential compromises exist in reviving the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and increasing transparency around military exercises.
- These involve limiting missile deployment and providing more notice about exercises.
Invasion Pretext?
- Russia's insistence on NATO's non-expansion is a major obstacle, suggesting the demands were designed to be rejected.
- Putin's true aim may be to provoke an invasion pretext, highlighting his discontent with the post-Cold War order.
Invasion Implications
- A major Russian attack on Ukraine is highly possible before winter's end due to logistical constraints.
- However, invasion consequences include sanctions, Ukrainian resistance support, and potential NATO expansion, counter to Putin's goals.