Bits + Bips The IRGC Is Weakened, but the Iranian People Still Won't Revolt, Says Major-General
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Mar 16, 2026 General Spider Marks, a former senior military/intelligence officer with firsthand Iran experience, explains why 93 million Persians are unlikely to rise up. He discusses Iranian society's acceptance of the IRGC, how the IRGC is weakened yet still controls, missed windows for popular revolt, ethnic fissures and limits of Kurdish action, and shifting regional hegemony involving Israel and Saudi Arabia.
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Brother-in-Law Explains Why Iranians Won't Revolt
- General Spider Marks cites his brother-in-law, an Iranian, as his primary on-the-ground source about Iranian society and behavior.
- The brother-in-law describes Persians as proud but unwilling to sacrifice, explaining why mass revolt is unlikely despite grievances.
IRGC Weakened But Still Controls Iran
- The IRGC is described as immensely weakened yet remains an effective internal control mechanism preventing export of its model.
- Marks argues unrest hasn't formed into sustained uprisings despite recent strikes and unrest observed over weeks.
Decapitation Strike Didn't Trigger Mass Uprising
- General Spider Marks recounts a successful decapitation strike enabled by unprecedented maritime and air capabilities.
- He notes that despite this military success, expected mass unrest did not materialize in the near term.