"This Won't Last" with Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg

Is Founder Mode Insightful? Plus AI Valuations, Unrealized Gains Tax, and Putin's Telegram

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Sep 8, 2024

The hosts dive into the intriguing dynamics of founder leadership versus traditional management styles, revealing how founders' insights can drive success. They explore the disruptive rise of AI technology and its implications for venture capital, especially in sectors like biotech. Economic policies take center stage, critiquing proposals around taxation and their effects on entrepreneurship. Plus, the discussion touches on the controversies surrounding Telegram and the evolving landscape of social media regulation, raising vital questions about privacy and safety.

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INSIGHT

State of Venture Markets

Venture markets show two distinct trends: AI and non-AI.
Non-AI investments are cooler, while AI investments are hotter, especially in Series B and C.

insights

INSIGHT

AI Valuations

Zach Weinberg expresses concern about high AI valuations based on unclear revenue quality.
He questions justifying 50-100x top-line multiples with potentially unsustainable revenue.

insights

INSIGHT

Outcome-Based Pricing

AI is shifting from service revenue to outcome-based pricing.
This change allows for capturing value differently, such as charging for resolutions.

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Spicy Conversations and Founder Friendships

01:40 • 2min

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Navigating Founder Leadership

03:31 • 15min

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Navigating VC Dynamics in AI and AVs

18:17 • 11min

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AI's Impact on Business and Investment Strategies

28:57 • 17min

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Economic Policies and Taxation Critique

45:31 • 9min

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Housing Markets and Fiscal Challenges

54:23 • 7min

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Navigating Healthcare and Tech Antitrust Challenges

01:00:54 • 9min

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Disruption in AI: The Rise of Perplexity and Its Impact on Tech Giants

01:10:08 • 2min

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The Telegram Controversy

01:12:20 • 9min

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Distinguishing Luck from Skill in Speculation

01:21:02 • 2min

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#217

• Mentioned in 107 episodes

High Output Management

Andrew S. Grove

High Output Management is a seminal book by Andrew S. Grove that outlines his management and productivity concepts developed during his tenure at Intel. The book introduces the 'management by objectives' approach, also known as the objectives and key results (OKR) framework. It covers techniques for creating highly productive teams, methods of motivation, and the importance of measurable processes, performance reviews, and training. Grove emphasizes the role of managers in leading and motivating teams, and his book is praised for its practical advice and timeless relevance in various professions and industries.

#9590

• Mentioned in 5 episodes

The Last Days of Night

Ina Friedman

#3338

• Mentioned in 14 episodes

Dark Wire

The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever

Joseph Cox

Dark Wire recounts the story of Anom, a secure communications app secretly run by the FBI, which allowed law enforcement to monitor tens of thousands of criminals worldwide, including members of drug cartels, the mafia, and other organized crime groups. The book reveals the intricate details of this global sting operation, highlighting the technological and ethical complexities involved. It follows the agents and criminals as they navigate this high-stakes game, ultimately leading to a massive international crackdown on criminal activities.

#2205

• Mentioned in 20 episodes

The success equation

Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing

Michael Mauboussin

In this book, Michael Mauboussin helps readers understand the interplay between skill and luck in achieving successes and failures. He provides a framework to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck, offering concrete suggestions for applying these insights to improve decision-making. The book covers various concepts such as the continuum of activities from pure luck to pure skill, the importance of sample size, and the use of tools like checklists to enhance performance. Mauboussin draws on examples from sports, business, and investing to illustrate his points, making the book a valuable resource for anyone seeking to make better decisions in both professional and personal life.

#5226

• Mentioned in 9 episodes

Engines That Move Markets

Alistair Nairn

#45086

Disruptive Innovation: The Christensen Collection

A collection of works on disruptive innovation

Clayton M. Christensen

Hal Gregersen

Jeffrey Dyer

Michael Raynor

This collection includes Christensen's influential books on how companies can be disrupted by new technologies and business models, and how they can become disruptors themselves. It also explores the behaviors of successful innovators and provides tools for sustaining growth.

This is the debut episode of This Won’t Last, a monthly conversation between Logan Bartlett of Redpoint, Keith Rabois at Khosla Ventures, Kevin Ryan at Alleycorp, and Zach Weinberg, biotech founder (Curie.Bio) and investor. This episode covers Founder Mode, the state of VC fundraising, the potential for an unrealized gains tax, and Russia’s influence in Telegram.

This Won't Last is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

🎥 Subscribe on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast

https://www.youtube.com/@theloganbartlettshow

𝕏

https://x.com/thiswontlast

https://x.com/rabois

https://x.com/loganbartlett

https://x.com/kevinryan

https://x.com/zachweinberg

https://x.com/Redpoint

https://x.com/turpentinemedia

Links:

Keith’s Recs:

High Output Management by Andy Grove
Keith Rabois’ lecture notes from 2013: "How to Operate" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs
Tesla versus Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore
Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen
The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin

Kevin’s Recs:

Dark Wire by Joseph Cox

Logan’s Recs:

On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn
Wired: “The Kremlin has entered your chat”

RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. Founders Fund's Delian Asparouhov and researcher Nadia Asparouhova kick off the series with an unfiltered conversation about their relationship evolution.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(02:39) Kevin comes back from Burning Man

(04:20) Paul Graham’s Founder Mode

(05:45) Founder mode intuitive for Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote

(07:00) Keith’s response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management

(08:28) What’s unique about Founder Mode?

(09:13) Manager vs. Founder

(12:57) Founder moral authority

(15:00) Investing in founder driven CEOs

(18:47) State of venture markets

(21:15) Driverless car future

(26:25) Revenue quality in AI valuations

(33:00) New technology disruptive or helpful for incumbents

(35:40) AI in Biotech

(38:44) AI impacting fund AUM

(42:30) AI as the transistor

(43:25) Hurdle to return AI CapEx

(44:30) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax

(47:27) Sweden’s tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates

(54:50) Medicare & Social Security, beneficial tax policies

(1:00:45) Misleading life expectancy stats

(1:02:15) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry

(1:10:20) Perplexity shocking Google

(1:12:30) Pavel Durov and Russia’s Influence in Telegram

(1:16:45) Not using TikTok and Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies

(1:22:25) Closing

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