HousingWire Daily NAR’s Jessica Lautz on expectations for the spring housing market
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Mar 4, 2026 
Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at the National Association of Realtors, brings data-driven perspective on home prices, buyer demographics, and spring market trends. She discusses falling mortgage rates and signs of an earlier spring, regional variation between cash and first-time buyers, shifts in seller willingness, and how policy and aging-in-place issues affect inventory.
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Falling Mortgage Rates Kick Off Early Spring
- Mortgage rates have been declining and are driving an earlier, stronger spring market than the past two years.
- Jessica Lautz points to recent drops in mortgage interest rates and seasonal upticks as signs buyers and motivated sellers are re-entering the market.
Contingency Waivers Are Falling
- Buyers are less likely to waive contingencies now, indicating less desperation and more balanced negotiations.
- NAR data shows waiving contingencies fell to the lowest level in four years, reducing risky buyer behavior.
Mixed Market With Select Homes Commanding Premiums
- Home prices are still rising overall but the market is mixed: a subset of desirable homes draws multiple offers while others linger.
- About 16% of homes sell above asking and the average is roughly two offers, concentrated in select markets.