a16z Podcast: Centers of Power, War, and History

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Aug 11, 2017

Graham Allison, a renowned political scientist and former dean at Harvard's Kennedy School, is joined by Matthew Colford for a thought-provoking discussion. They delve into the 'Thucydides trap,' exploring how the rising power of China could potentially displace the U.S. Historical parallels are drawn to the Cold War, shedding light on modern tensions. They also examine nationalistic leadership styles and propose the establishment of a White House Council of Historical Advisors to enrich policy-making with insights from history, underscoring the importance of understanding the past to shape the future.

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INSIGHT

Thucydides Trap Predicts High Risk Of Conflict

Thucydides trap: rising power threatening a ruling power makes war likely. Graham Allison finds 16 historical cases where 12 led to war and only 4 avoided it.
He uses the 500-year canvas to argue business as usual between the U.S. and China risks repeating those war outcomes unless history is studied.

INSIGHT

China's Economic Rise Is Measurable And Fast

China is plausibly on track to displace U.S. regional predominance because of its sheer economic scale measured by purchasing power parity. Allison cites IMF/CIA metrics to support this view.
He notes China now rivals or exceeds the U.S. in PPP and points to rapid corporate growth like Tencent and Alibaba as visible evidence.

ANECDOTE

Harvard Student's Example Of China's Tech Ubiquity

Allison recounts a Harvard student from Shanghai who said China has 10–100x more apps and cashless payments via Alibaba Pay.
He contrasts slow U.S. bridge reconstruction (Anderson Bridge) with a Chinese bridge rebuilt in 43 hours as a vivid productivity example.

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with Graham Allison and Matthew Colford

"When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, shit happens." It's true of people, it's true of companies, and it's even more true of countries. It's also the fundamental insight captured by ancient Greek historian Thucydides in his History of The Pelopennesian War. But where he was describing the war between Sparta and Athens, modern historian and political scientist Graham Allison describes how U.S. and China can escape this rising vs. ruling power "Thucydides trap" in his new book, Destined for War. Allison -- advisor on U.S. national security and policy to several secretaries of defense spanning decades -- was former dean of the Kennedy School and most recently Director of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Based on an internal policy series lunch speaker event earlier this year (and moderated by a16z partner Matthew Colford), the conversation touches very briefly on centers of power and creativity; tech in China; North Korea; and finally, the role of applying history -- "applied history", much like the field of engineering could be considered applied physics -- to our thinking about the future. By analyzing the analogs and precedents in the historical record, what clues or insights or lessons might we draw? Because business as usual will produce history as usual argues Allison... but only those of us who fail to study history will repeat it.

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