The Math Has Improved But The Sentiment Hasn't

February 2026 home sales were 8.1% below last year — the weakest comparable data since the 2009 financial crisis — despite improving affordability, as tariff fears, job losses, and rising delinquencies keep buyers on the sidelines

Canada lost 83,900 jobs in February and mortgage arrears are climbing, with Toronto and Vancouver facing the highest projected delinquency risk as softer prices, weaker resale liquidity, and a shakier labour market all hit at once

The national average is masking a country moving in opposite directions: Toronto's benchmark price is down 7.9% year over year while Quebec City is up 12.3% and Alberta stays resilient — there is no single Canadian housing market, only a national average pretending to be one