Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 18: Time To Raise Cash? With The Blind Squirrel
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Feb 23, 2026 Rupert Mitchell, author of Blind Squirrel Macro Substack and macro/commodities commentator. He explains why he has moved to higher cash and hedges. They cover stretched software valuations, risks in payments and private credit, gold and miner selection, uranium and base metals, emerging markets, Japan small-caps, and tactical hedging against USD moves.
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Raise Cash And Trim Positions You Don’t Love
- Raise cash and trim positions you no longer 'really, really love' to manage risk and avoid large concentration losses.
- Rupert moved to ~25% cash and hedges, selling winners rather than pressing them and favoring closed trades as top performers.
Software Valuations Still Look Stretched
- Many software and AI-hyped names were priced on optimistic long-horizon assumptions and low discount rates that look unsupportable.
- Even after corrections, equal-weighted cloud ETFs trade at mid-single digit EV/sales and still look expensive to Rupert.
Private Credit Can Transmit Systemic Pain Indirectly
- Shadow banking and private credit aren't like bank runs but can transmit losses via insurance and life-company exposures.
- Rupert sees these as a feature of post-GFC finance that could require central bank intervention if losses crystallize.