Americano Can anyone beat a madman president?
Mar 17, 2026
James D. Boys, senior research fellow at UCL and author of US Grand Strategy and the Madman Theory, gives a crisp scholarly tour of the madman idea from Machiavelli to Nixon and Trump. He traces its intellectual roots, compares Nixon and Trump, explores uses against allies and Iran, and flags the strategy’s limits and risks in great power politics.
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Madman Theory's Deep Intellectual Roots
- The madman theory predates Nixon and has intellectual roots at Harvard in the 1950s through thinkers like Thomas Schelling and Daniel Ellsberg.
- James D. Boys links the idea back to Hobbes and Machiavelli and shows Nixon, Eisenhower and Kissinger developed it into a Cold War grand strategy.
Madman Theory Requires Calculated Performance
- Proper madman theory requires a rational actor deliberately feigning unpredictability to make opponents fear a small chance of extreme action.
- Boys stresses Trump is not necessarily mad but applies calculated unpredictability, a tactic Nixon attempted with less credibility.
Credibility Makes The Madman Threat Effective
- Nixon struggled because adversaries didn't believe he'd follow through, whereas Trump benefits from perceived actual willingness to act.
- That credibility gap makes Trump's threats more effective in pushing allies and adversaries to change behaviour.
