Canada's warning to Trump, and Carney's victory lap around Europe

Jan 23, 2026

A return conversation about Canada quietly wargaming insurgency and what asymmetric resistance might look like. A take on Mark Carney’s Davos speech and who it was really aimed at. Discussion of Alberta rumblings about joining the U.S. and concerns over foreign money, propaganda, and influence in Canadian politics.

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INSIGHT

Canada Wargames Extreme Contingencies

The Canadian military is legitimately wargaming anti-American insurgency scenarios as prudent contingency planning.
Jen Gerson reads the leak as a deliberate message to signal Canada will resist intimidation from the U.S.

INSIGHT

Planning ≠ Mobilization

High-level Canadian defense thinking expanded recently to include unlikely scenarios like U.S. invasion, not detailed mobilization.
Matt Gurney stresses planning exists but isn't evidence of stockpiles or active orders.

INSIGHT

How An Occupation Would Likely Unfold

Any occupying power's strategy would target government seizure and resources, not mass urban tank invasions.
Counterinsurgency aims to raise occupation costs until the occupier abandons control.

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In today’s episode of The Line Podcast, recorded on January 23rd, 2026, Matt Gurney and Jen Gerson are finally reunited after a long absence. Matt briefly explains where he’s been (you can see his full statement here) and thanks The Line’s audience for their patience and support before the conversation turns to the biggest stories of the week. As Jen notes, it’s a perfect moment for Matt to be back. With sudden, serious talk about insurgency, warfare, geopolitical conflict, guns, emergency preparedness, and civil defence, all the subjects Matt has been nerding out about for decades have abruptly become relevant. She jokes that it would have been a shame for him to miss this moment, especially as the Canadian military has quietly been gaming out insurgency and resistance scenarios in the unlikely but no-longer-unthinkable event of a U.S. invasion. Matt, unsurprisingly, has a few thoughts.

From there, the hosts turn to Mark Carney’s speech in Davos. Jen argues it was really aimed at a European audience and may have doubled as a victory lap. Matt agrees, but adds that Washington was clearly part of the intended audience as well. Still, both hosts think the most important audience is here at home. Everyone seems to agree that major changes are coming and that major changes are needed. The open question is who is going to start proposing them, especially the ones that will be politically painful.

Finally, Matt and Jen dig into comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting Alberta wants to join the United States. Jen is skeptical. Matt, meanwhile, wonders how nice it would be if Canada had a reliable way of noticing when large amounts of foreign money were flowing into the country to influence domestic politics. It’s a pity, really, that we haven’t already spent years seriously debating foreign interference in Canadian democracy.

In any case, your hosts are happy to be back together. Enjoy all this and more in the latest episode of The Line Podcast. Check us out at ReadTheLine.ca, and as always, like and subscribe.