The Pie: An Economics Podcast The War in Iran: Oil, Cyber Warfare, and Alliances
Mar 31, 2026
Jake Braun, cybersecurity expert who led White House cyber roles, Paul Poast, political scientist focused on warfare and alliances, and Ryan Kellogg, energy economist on oil markets, discuss Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil supply shocks, cyber and AI-enabled attacks, coalition reluctance among European and Gulf powers, and shifting strategic goals and great-power dynamics.
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Momentum From Prior Raids Drove Timing
- U.S. strikes on Iran fit a pattern of "momentum" from prior successful operations that encouraged further action.
- Paul Poast links the Tehran strike decision to political momentum from the Maduro raid plus pressure from allies like Lindsey Graham and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hormuz Blockade Removed 10% Of Global Oil
- Blocking the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly 10 million barrels per day, about 10% of global oil supply, causing a major price shock.
- Ryan Kellogg notes strategic reserve releases helped but couldn't fully offset the shock because short-run oil demand is highly inelastic.
Asia Is Most Dependent On Gulf Flows
- East and South Asian economies, especially China and India, are most directly dependent on Gulf flows through Hormuz.
- Kellogg emphasizes the market equilibrates, so higher prices ripple to Europe and U.S. consumers despite regional dependence.