Shield of the Republic

A Dangerous Start to 2026

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Jan 12, 2026
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INSIGHT

Tanker Seizures Raise Risk Of Unintended Russia Clash

  • Seizing sanctioned 'ghost fleet' tankers signaled active enforcement and triggered Russian and Iranian reactions.
  • The operation risked inadvertent conflict with Russian escorts and drew Moscow's noisy but measured response.
INSIGHT

Enforcing Sanctions Disrupts Global Energy Networks

  • Stopping the ghost fleet targeted sanction evasion by Russia and Iran and disrupted global energy flows.
  • Eric Edelman argues enforcement was overdue and will ripple through Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing's oil sourcing.
INSIGHT

Surgical Raids Can Depend On Luck Not Just Skill

  • The administration favors 'surgical' military actions that look precise but carry high risks and rely on luck.
  • Cohen warns raids like Caracas exposed narrow survival margins where luck, not just skill, prevented heavy U.S. casualties.
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