Animal Spirits Podcast Wait, Are We in a Recession??? (EP. 440)
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Nov 26, 2025 In a lively discussion, hosts dive into the unusual stock market movements and the impact of algorithm-driven trading. They ponder whether we’re facing a recession as labor trends weaken and debate the necessity of timely Fed cuts. The excitement around Google's AI advancements sparks a conversation about investment strategies in tech. Meanwhile, they explore the emotional volatility of crypto and share personal anecdotes about Disney experiences. The conversation wraps up with movie recommendations and reflections on the market's current state.
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Cumulative Inflation Hurts More Than Rate Alone
- Cumulative multi-year inflation matters more to budgets than headline rates.
- Ben Carlson explains high cumulative price rises feel painful because people rarely get a recession-driven reset.
AI Narrative Rotates Market Winners
- Google surged after Gemini 3 impressions, showing AI narrative leadership can shift quickly.
- Ben Carlson observes investors rotate winners as perception of the AI leader changes.
Prefer Broad AI Exposure Over Picking Winners
- Avoid picking single AI winners; prefer broad exposure like the Nasdaq 100.
- Ben Carlson recommends index-focused exposure because selecting winners in AI is too hard.