Daniel Davis Deep Dive No Surprise if Russia Takes Kyiv /fmr CIA Analyst Larry Johnson
Feb 18, 2026
Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst known for national security commentary, breaks down Russia's war aims and why diplomacy stalled. He discusses Kyiv's vulnerability and prospects for territorial gains. He explores Russia's ties with China, India, and Iran, plus joint naval drills and military integration. He outlines internal Ukrainian rivalries and Western strategic tensions.
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Novorossiya And Continued Russian Advance
- Russia regards the Donetsk/Crimea/Kherson/Zaporizhia regions as permanently Russian and will press further into Novorossiya.
- Johnson warns Ukraine lacks the infrastructure and personnel to stop a Russian military defeat.
Factionalism In Kyiv Tied To Western Proxies
- Internal Ukrainian factions align with external intelligence services and disagree on negotiating posture.
- Johnson calls Kirill Budanov the CIA-aligned proxy while MI6 supports other Ukrainian elements, deepening fragmentation.
Talks As Political Cover While Preparing Militarily
- Russia uses negotiations partly to demonstrate goodwill to China and India while preparing militarily for decisive action.
- Johnson predicts Russia could secure Nikolaev and Odessa and potentially threaten Kyiv by year-end.