The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 387. Houston, We Have a Slowdown: Loan Outcomes, CRE Reality, & Capital on the Move
Apr 3, 2026
They unpack mixed economic signals, from surprisingly strong February retail sales to softer data and volatile rates. They compare today’s economy to 1972 using Artemis II as a framing device. They track loan maturities and outcomes, and highlight a March CMBS delinquency spike. They note headline deals and moves in office, multifamily, retail expansion, and industrial portfolio sales.
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Energy Shock Could Trigger Quick Consumer Pullback
- Geopolitical shocks to oil via the Strait of Hormuz risk rapid consumer pain and possible rationing in Europe.
- Physical disruptions could push US pump prices well above $4 per gallon if the conflict persists.
Office Stock Age Reveals Uneven Market Evolution
- CMBS office stock age varies by market: NYC has 54% built 1972 or earlier, Los Angeles 26%, Chicago 36%.
- Markets like San Jose, Miami, and Dallas have only 2% of office stock pre-1972, highlighting post-1972 CRE growth.
Post-1972 Growth Dominates Emerging Office Markets
- Some Sunbelt and Sunbelt-adjacent markets are almost entirely built after 1972: Phoenix and Las Vegas show 0% pre-1972 office in CMBS universe.
- That underscores how institutional CRE expanded into new metros post-1970s.