Slate Daily Feed What Next - The Iran War Hits Your Pocket
Mar 26, 2026
Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan economics professor and policy commentator, breaks down how conflict around the Strait of Hormuz ripples through inflation, jobs, and global trade. He covers why oil shocks now differ from the 1970s, which industries would be hit, policy levers like demand reduction and export limits, and how geopolitical unpredictability forces long-term economic rewiring.
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Markets Moved When Iran Denied US Negotiation Claims
- Markets reacted to conflicting claims about negotiating with Iran: stocks rose on the president's claim then fell when Iran denied talks.
- Wolfers uses this to show markets distrust US statements and seek Iranian confirmation.
US Economy Was Fragile Before The Iran War
- The US economy before the Iran war was fragile, roughly a B, with rising unemployment and sticky inflation near 3%.
- Justin Wolfers highlights slower GDP growth, flatlined inflation, and fewer jobs created in the first year of the administration as key weaknesses.
1970s Oil Shock Is Not A Perfect Analogy
- Today's economy is less oil-dependent than the 1970s, reducing but not eliminating stagflation risk.
- Wolfers: services shift and lower oil intensity mean oil shocks redistribute income more than making the nation poorer.