Wall Street Breakfast The largest oil supply shock ever
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Mar 12, 2026 A report on a historic oil supply shock that disrupted about 7.5% of global output. Coverage of tanker traffic collapse through the Strait of Hormuz and its market ripple effects. A shift in Fed rate-cut timing as Goldman pushes forecasts back amid inflation concerns. A safety notice about compounded weight-loss drug formulations. Notes on hedge funds' top sector bets and AI moving beyond chatbots.
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Largest Global Oil Supply Shock
- The IEA calls the U.S.-Israel conflict the largest oil supply shock ever, disrupting roughly 7.5% of global supply.
- Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell over 90%, and the IEA estimates up to an 8 million bpd reduction this month.
Reassess Fed Cut Timing Because Of Oil Risks
- Rising oil-driven inflation and Iran-related tensions led Goldman Sachs to delay its forecasted Fed rate cut to September.
- Goldman still expects two cuts in 2026 but warns labor-market weakness could change timing.
Blue Owl Loan Sale Without Backstops
- Blue Owl Capital told investors it sold $1.4 billion of loans with no backstops or hidden incentives at a private conference.
- The buyers conducted due diligence, purchased on identical terms, and received no special guarantees.