Fresh Air Could the Iran war lead to WWIII?
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Mar 17, 2026 
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment with deep Tehran experience, breaks down Iran's power struggles and how the Revolutionary Guard really runs the country. He outlines succession risks, Iran's asymmetric attacks on Gulf infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. policy priorities, and why global escalation to World War III is unlikely.
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Power Lies With The Revolutionary Guards
- Mojtaba Khamenei holds the formal title but real power rests with the Revolutionary Guards and military.
- The Guards are decentralized into roughly 31 semi-independent units, producing inconsistent retaliation and strategy.
Regime Survival Trumps Popular Support
- The regime's survival and commitment to the 1979 revolutionary principles remain paramount for its leaders.
- Senior commanders, handpicked by the late Ayatollah, rallied around defiance of the U.S. and Israel and believe their tactics have pressured U.S. opinion.
A Poor Man's Strategy Creates Global Disruption
- Iran uses low-cost drones and missiles to attack high-value Gulf infrastructure and commercial shipping as an asymmetric strategy.
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz threatens 20% of global oil and leverages a small-cost attack for large economic impact.