Today, Explained Iran's regime, unchanged
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Mar 16, 2026 
Nargis Bajogli, a Johns Hopkins scholar of Iran and media, and Vali Nasr, a political scientist and Middle East strategist, unpack why Iran’s rulers can lose top figures without losing control. They dig into diaspora feuds, nationalism stirred by bombing, younger hard-liners pushing escalation, and how the Strait of Hormuz could raise the stakes worldwide.
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Younger Iranian Leaders See Aggression As Deterrence
- Nasr says Iran’s rising wartime generation is less restrained and more willing to confront the US directly.
- They believe the older leadership’s prudence invited war, so greater aggression now is the way to restore deterrence.
Hormuz Is Only The Start Of Iran’s Leverage
- Iran’s pressure campaign is bigger than blocking Hormuz because it can also hit Gulf oil infrastructure and wider supply chains.
- Nasr says a strait closure is only the visible first shock; damage to southern Gulf energy sites could trigger longer global disruption.
Iran May Force Negotiations By Raising Global Costs
- Nasr lays out three endgames: Iranian collapse, Iranian surrender, or a negotiated settlement forced by the costs of escalation.
- He thinks Iran may outlast initial expectations by shifting pressure onto oil markets and the Gulf, raising costs for Washington.
