Revolution in Military Affairs Tim Sweijs and the Future Challenges of War
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Mar 9, 2026 
Tim Sweijs, director of research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and expert in defense strategy, explores how the war in Ukraine forced a return to conventional war fundamentals. He explains why the West misread Russia, contrasts futurist and traditionalist views on technology, and outlines how drones, autonomy, and concept development will shape denial and control on future battlefields.
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Technology Complements But Does Not Replace Traditional Warfare
- Ukraine blends enduring war features with new technologies rather than proving a complete revolution in warfare.
- Sweijs notes dominance of artillery, human mobilization, and tech like HIMARS and TB2s, but no strategic breakthrough yet.
Nowhere To Hide In Ukraine Kill Zones
- Sweijs observed on-the-ground kill zones and pervasive sensors that leave 'nowhere to hide'.
- He cites private satellites, FPV drones, and smartphones creating a shorter sensor-to-shooter cycle in Ukraine.
Human Factors Drive Brigade Performance Differences
- Unit quality varies drastically within the same army, affecting casualty rates and effectiveness.
- Sweijs reports Ukrainian brigades with casualty rates from 5–10% up to 50%, tied to recruitment, training, leadership, and METL/AF capabilities.