The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan
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Sep 4, 2025 Mark Cancian, a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, dives into the strategic implications of a potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan. He explains why China might favor a blockade over an invasion and the associated risks of escalation. Cancian explores Taiwan's military vulnerabilities and the crucial role of U.S. and Japan's support. He emphasizes the importance of defense preparedness and discusses how the blockade could disrupt global trade, especially in semiconductor manufacturing.
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Taiwan Needs External Support To Hold
- Taiwan alone can resist for weeks using inventories and forces but cannot sustain a blockade without U.S. help.
- With U.S. intervention, massive convoy battles occur but supply can be maintained despite heavy losses.
Escalation Often Follows Misread Signals
- Escalation typically occurs when a side feels lower-level measures are failing and thus brings in stronger forces.
- Signals intended as restraint were often misread as preparations for greater attacks.
Frame The Conflict As An International Threat
- Frame any Chinese action as a disruption of international peace to justify outside involvement.
- Use the Taiwan Relations Act's peaceful-unification language to stress consent and oppose coercive reunification.