Perspective with Ryan Bridge: What will the Willis-Richardson debate do for Nicola's credibility?

This Nicola Willis-Ruth Richardson showdown looks like it'll go ahead next week after the HYEFU release.

As you'll know from listening to this show on Monday night, Nicola's not happy with Ruth. And Ruth isn't too happy with Nicola.

We have a structural deficit and we're not addressing it. Surplus is probably going to be pushed out - again - to 2030. So we have a showdown.

But you might be wondering why the current Finance Minister is debating a former one (of some 30-odd years ago) at all. Well, here's the comms strategy on this:

Ruth has credibility, as least on the right. The left reckons she permanently scarred the country, but you can't deny something had to be done. And people forget the growth and jobs that followed.

Nicola's still earning her credibility, and things have not been going terribly well on that front. Spending's higher than Grant and surplus keeps getting pushed out. The growth is anaemic.

So this is a way of tackling Ruth's attacks head-on and putting them to bed.

Usually, ministers don't give oxygen to debates because it gives their opponent equal standing with them. A bit of the Treasury bench rubs off and can make your opponent seem credible.

Which is why you wouldn't see Luxon near Hipkins outside of a Bollywood dance off - except during mandatory campaign debates.

So, sorry Chlöe and sorry Barbara, this is a Ruth thing.

But there's also a smarter strategy going on here from Willis, I reckon.

By debating somebody on the right, she makes herself seem more centrist in the public's eyes. She distances herself from the Scrooge argument. She highlights how much they are still spending and haven't cut. And will argue cuts now would mean job losses and less growth.

It's basically framing the economic debate as one between the right, and even more right.

Which leaves the left out in the cold. And also looking a little trigger happy on the country credit card.

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