We all occasionally fall victim to fallacies—assumptions or beliefs that just aren’t true.
Consider a deceptively simple logic puzzle known as the Monty Hall problem: You’re presented with three doors, behind one of which is a prize, and you have to guess the door. Before revealing the answer, the game show host makes your life easier by eliminating one of the wrong answers and asks you if you want to change your guess. Should you change it?
Most people shrug and say, “At that point, it’s 50/50, so I’d just keep my guess the same.” This is the wrong answer: You should switch your guess because the other door has two-thirds odds of being correct.
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