Tomorrow - ein McKinsey Podcast Deutscher Strommarkt – viel Förderung, gleiche Kosten?
Feb 26, 2026
Alexander Weiss, Senior Partner at McKinsey who models energy systems and policy, joins to unpack Germany's power outlook to 2035. He explains why three very different subsidy scenarios all land near €90 billion in system costs. Conversation covers import dependence, grid stability, rising industrial demand from AI, and practical levers like local generation, energy zones, and transport upgrades.
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System Costs Converge Around €90 Billion
- Different support-policy scenarios for Germany's power system converge to very similar system costs by 2035 at about €90 billion per year.
- McKinsey modeled three extremes (stop subsidies, restrict imports, technology-open cost optimization) and found only ~€1–2 billion spread between them.
Import Dependence Varies Strongly By Scenario
- Scenario design strongly affects Germany's net import dependence, not total system cost.
- In the no-additional-support scenario Germany imports over a quarter of its electricity, while the technology‑open scenario reduces net imports almost to zero.
Current Trade Patterns Create Value Loss
- Germany will increasingly import when prices are high and export at zero or negative prices, amplifying value loss from mismatched flows.
- Alexander Weiss warns current patterns show imports at expensive times and exports into low/negative price periods.