"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Noah Smith on Taiwan's Future, Nuclear Proliferation, and Trump 2.0 [ChinaTalk]

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Jan 22, 2025
Guest
Lily Ottinger
Lily Ottinger, managing editor and Taipei correspondent for ChinaTalk, chats with Noah Smith about urgent geopolitical matters. They delve into how Trump's potential second term could shift Asian dynamics, especially with tech sectors influencing policy. The conversation touches on nuclear arms, particularly Japan and South Korea's security needs, and Taiwan’s historical nuclear ambitions. They also analyze China's economic stagnation and the impact of debt deflation, offering insights into the island's defense strategies and future economic prospects.
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INSIGHT

Taiwan's Economic Model

  • Taiwan, under constant threat from China, has struggled with long-term economic planning.
  • Noah suggests Taiwan focus on becoming a major arms manufacturer, especially of drones and batteries.
INSIGHT

China's Real Estate Bust

  • China's real estate bust, similar to Japan's 1992 bubble, involves excessive debt based on land price appreciation.
  • This leads to a game of deciding who absorbs losses, often delaying recovery through "extend and pretend."
INSIGHT

China's Deflation Problem

  • Deflation is a taboo topic in China, with officials downplaying its risks.
  • Ignoring bad debt and deflation could hobble China's economy for years, potentially through 2032.
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