The Good Fight Francis Fukuyama on Trump’s War With Iran
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Mar 1, 2026 
Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford and author known for work on liberalism, offers a brisk take on recent strikes on Iran. He discusses the limits of decapitation strikes. He examines what does and does not destabilize regimes. He weighs regional fallout, U.S. escalation choices, and the political optics shaping possible outcomes.
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Decapitation Attacks Produce Chaos Not Control
- Decapitation strikes create extreme unpredictability rather than decisive outcomes.
- Francis Fukuyama cites historical studies showing such attacks usually fail to deliver the intended political end and produce chaotic aftermaths requiring follow-up force.
Leader Loss Destabilizes Iran But Won't Ensure Orderly Change
- Killing senior leaders destabilizes Iran but doesn't guarantee regime collapse or constructive successor governance.
- Fukuyama warns the IRGC and Basij are well-armed and motivated, so follow-up violence and internal power struggles are likely without ground control.
Regional Conflagration Is Unlikely Right Now
- A wider regional war is less likely because Iran's proxies have been weakened and Iran appears militarily limited.
- Fukuyama notes Hezbollah and Hamas are severely weakened, so main conflict will be internal to Iran.
