WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch Can Iran's Regime Survive the War?
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Mar 5, 2026 
Michael Doran, Hudson Institute Middle East expert and former NSC official, offers sharp analysis of Iran and regional security. He discusses the military campaign’s progress and the challenge of turning battlefield wins into political outcomes. He explains missile production, regional strikes, risks of provoking neighbors, internal regime resilience, and the prospects and pitfalls of seeking regime transformation.
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Military Campaign Is Militarily Successful
- Michael Doran says the military campaign is going brilliantly and ahead of schedule according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
- He cautions the key challenge is translating military success into lasting political outcomes, which remains uncertain.
Interceptort Supply Shapes Iranian Tactics
- Doran notes Iranian launches have dropped to roughly 25% of initial levels after many launchers were taken out.
- He explains Iran's strategy was to force coalition interceptor depletion because interceptors are scarce and costly to replenish.
Foreign Suppliers Rebuilt Iran's Missile Industry
- Israelis previously struck mixers to cripple medium-range solid-fuel missile production, believing it would stall for a year.
- Chinese assistance rapidly reconstituted Iranian production and Tehran then expanded its arsenal.