Closing Bell Closing Bell: 3/24/26
4 snips
Mar 24, 2026 
Bruce Richards, a Marathon executive on public and private credit, offers views on private credit risk and lending posture. Liz Thomas, a senior finance commentator, discusses oil, the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical threats to markets. They tackle private credit vulnerabilities, sector exposures, rising oil and how Middle East tensions could ripple through markets.
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Avoid High Leverage Software Exposure In Private Credit
- Avoid funds with concentrated software exposure and high leverage in current private credit market.
- Bruce Richards says Marathon enforces a hard no on software deals and prefers lending at ~4x leverage versus peers doing 6–10x.
Software Concentration Amplified By Fund Leverage
- Many private credit managers overconcentrated in software created outsized investor exposure once leverage is considered.
- Bruce Richards notes 26% manager exposure can translate to ~52% of investors' capital due to fund-level leverage.
Private Credit Pain Now, Default Wave Could Come Later
- The immediate pressure is valuation resets and redemption runs, not yet a default wave; defaults may rise in 2027–28.
- Richards forecasts software default rates could reach ~15% after valuation resets, but says systemic economic risk is limited today.