Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken

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Mar 18, 2026

Kamakshya Trivedi, Chief FX and Emerging Market Strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, breaks down currency moves and EM resilience. He discusses markets pricing an oil-driven inflation shock, why typical hedges underperformed, the dollar’s support, AI-driven earnings in Korea and Taiwan, and balancing tech with commodity exporters.

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INSIGHT

Inflation Shock, Not Growth Shock

Markets are pricing an inflation shock from higher energy prices, not yet a growth shock.
Kamakshya Trivedi points to rate-curve repricing and failed hedges as evidence that inflation concerns dominate current moves.

INSIGHT

Why Usual Geopolitical Hedges Failed

Common geopolitical hedges have underperformed due to positioning, policy responses, and inflation pushing rates higher.
Trivedi cites crowded longs in gold, duration hurt by inflation, and Swiss franc intervention memories as concrete reasons.

INSIGHT

Sequencing: Inflation Then Growth Risk

Markets first price the size of the energy/inflation hit before assessing growth damage; growth risk is the 'shoe left to drop.'
If physical energy shortages emerge, growth damage could arrive faster than price channels imply.

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Goldman Sachs Research’s Kamakshya Trivedi analyzes the market’s reaction to the conflict in Iran and the case for emerging markets.

This episode was recorded on March 12, 2026.

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