We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network RWH066: Essential Truths w/ Howard Marks, Nima Shayegh & William Green
Howard Marks, legendary Oaktree cofounder known for memos on market cycles, and Nima Shayegh, long-term investor focused on a company’s cultural and product roots, join William Green’s reflections. They tackle AI euphoria and its pitfalls. They discuss humility, emotional control, spotting “roots” beyond spreadsheets, intuition in investing, and lessons on resilience and long-term thinking.
01:30:32
Stay On The Gravy Train
- Keep an even keel: don't buy when prices are high or sell when depressed.
- Invest early, invest a lot, and don't tamper with a long‑term portfolio.
Future Is A Probability Distribution
- Treat the future as a probability distribution, not a single certain outcome.
- Humility prevents heavy bets on a single forecast unless you have special expertise.
Roots Over Branches
- Nima frames business analysis as 'roots' (qualitative causes) vs 'branches' (measurable data).
- Roots like culture and product quality often determine future economics.
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Intro
00:00 • 5min
Will AI Change the World but Not All Profits
04:51 • 5min
Mistakes to Avoid in Euphoria
09:37 • 14min
Keeping an Even Keel in Volatility
23:28 • 7min
Comparing AI to Past Bubbles
30:09 • 43sec
Embracing Uncertainty and Humility
30:51 • 2min
Practical Takeaways from Howard Marks
33:18 • 6min
Roots vs Branches: Seeing Business Essence
39:04 • 1min
Why Qualitative Roots Matter
40:34 • 4min
Developing Pre-Intellectual Awareness
44:20 • 3min
'Blown-Awayness' as a Quality Signal
47:20 • 3min
Integrating Emotion and Intuition in Investing
50:10 • 7min
Lou Simpson's Mentorship and Humility
57:22 • 2min
Lou's Low-Ego Investment Style
59:21 • 5min
Ad break
01:04:50 • 3min
Lessons from Lou: Balance and Space
01:08:10 • 6min
Optimizing for Long-Term Performance
01:14:32 • 9min
Stoic Practices for Enduring Suffering
01:23:29 • 10min
Outro
01:33:37 • 1min
#87954
The Complete Collection
All Public Memos from 1990 to Present
Howard Marks
The Complete Collection represents the collation of all Howard Marks's public memos from his first memo on October 12, 1990, to the latest as of the date of publication.
These memos, which are not published on a regular schedule but rather according to market conditions and the author's inspiration, cover enduring investment truths such as the need for second-level thinking, the importance of risk control, the inevitability of cycles, and the futility of macro forecasting.
The collection also chronicles the most impactful financial events of the last three decades, including the dot-com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the sea change in interest rate policy that took place in 2022.
#152
• Mentioned in 138 episodes
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
Robert Pirsig
This classic novel by Robert M. Pirsig is a personal and philosophical odyssey that delves into the author's search for meaning.
The narrative follows a father and his son on a summer motorcycle trip from the Midwest to California, intertwining a travelogue with deep philosophical discussions.
The book explores the concept of 'quality' and how it informs a well-lived life, reconciling science, religion, and humanism.
It also touches on the author's own struggles with his past and his philosophical quest, making it a touching and transcendent exploration of human experience and endeavor.
#5427
• Mentioned in 9 episodes
Concentrated Investing
Tobias Carlisle
#4813
• Mentioned in 10 episodes
Thoughts of a Philosophical Fighter Pilot
James Stockdale
This book is a compilation of James B. Stockdale's essays and speeches from the 1980s and 1990s, focusing on his experiences as a prisoner of war in Vietnam and how Stoic philosophy, particularly the teachings of Epictetus, helped him endure and thrive under extreme conditions.
It explores themes of character, leadership, integrity, and ethics.
#1089
• Mentioned in 35 episodes
Devil take the hindmost
A History of Financial Speculation
Edward Chancellor
In 'Devil Take the Hindmost,' Edward Chancellor traces the origins of the speculative spirit back to ancient Rome and chronicles its revival in the modern world.
The book covers various financial bubbles and crashes, including the tulip scandal of 1630s Holland, the South Sea Bubble of 1720, the railway mania of the 19th century, the crash of 1929, and more recent events like the dotcom bubble and the Japanese bubble economy.
Chancellor explores how human psychology and financial practices have led to repeated cycles of speculation and financial instability over the centuries.
#199
• Mentioned in 114 episodes
Richer, Wiser, Happier
How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life
William Green
In Richer, Wiser, Happier, William Green draws on interviews conducted over twenty-five years with many of the world’s greatest investors.
The book highlights that the most successful investors are mavericks and iconoclasts who question conventional wisdom and think rationally, rigorously, and objectively.
They maximize their odds of long-term success in markets and life by drawing insights from diverse fields such as neuroscience, economic history, psychology, philosophy, and more.
Green explains how these investors can teach us not only how to become rich but also how to improve our thinking, decision-making, risk assessment, and resilience, and how to turn uncertainty to our advantage.
William Green highlights essential truths about investing, business & life that emerged from two of his favorite interviews with Howard Marks and Nima Shayegh. This episode also explores powerful lessons on resilience from Bill Miller & Epictetus. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:04:31 - How investing legend Howard Marks views the euphoria over AI 00:11:10 - What potential mistakes he warns against in this environment 00:13:23 - What essential lessons William Green has learned from Howard 00:23:00 - How Howard keeps an even keel amid extreme uncertainty 00:26:09 - Why Howard, like Einstein, doesn’t think much about the future 00:34:19 - Why investing early & not “tampering” is the key to success 00:38:39 - How Nima Shayegh looks beyond numbers to find great stocks 00:44:19 - How to harness intuition & emotion in the investment process 00:49:13 - How products from Tesla & Amazon inspire “blown-awayness” 00:57:10 - What Nima learned from his famed mentor, Lou Simpson 01:04:38 - How Lou’s success was built on humility 01:19:55 - How Lou & Nima inspire William’s yearning for a spacious life 01:23:56 - How to handle suffering with help from Bill Miller & Epictetus
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
- Inquire about William Green’s Richer, Wiser, Happier Masterclass.
- Howard Marks’ Memos: The Complete Collection.
- Edward Chancellor's Devil Take the Hindmost.
- Allen Benello, Michael van Biema, Tobias Carlisle's Concentrated Investing.
- William Green’s podcast interview with Howard Marks.
- William Green’s podcast interview with Nima Shayegh.
- William Green’s book, Richer, Wiser, Happier.
- Follow William Green on X.
- Related books mentioned in the podcast.
- Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
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