Milk Road Macro 2026 Will Be a Roller Coaster Market (Here’s How to Survive It) w/ Michael Lebowitz
Jan 15, 2026
Michael Lebowitz, a seasoned portfolio manager with over 35 years of experience, delves into why passive investing might not cut it in the volatile market ahead. He discusses the impact of upcoming tariff rulings on market stability and the potential for increased volatility in 2026. Michael emphasizes the importance of active portfolio management and strategic risk controls, warning about the pitfalls of high valuations and premature growth pricing in AI. Expect roller coaster dynamics and shifts in asset correlations as investors navigate the evolving landscape.
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Bonds Largely Unfazed By Political Noise
- Bond markets showed muted reaction to subpoenas and auctions indicated strong demand from end investors.
- Low dealer participation in auctions suggests retail and institutional buyers remain engaged despite political noise.
More Cuts Than Markets Expect
- Lebowitz expects more Fed cuts than markets price because the labor market is weakening while inflation trends lower.
- Weakening jobs growth per population and falling inflation gauges make additional easing likely.
Use Reserves As A Liquidity Signal
- Monitor Fed reserve accumulation as a liquidity signal because it correlates with risk asset support.
- Watch reserves a month or two after the Fed starts accumulating to see if it offsets natural declines and supports markets.