One Rental At A Time RECESSION CANCELED
Feb 11, 2026
A lively run-through of surprising jobs data and how revisions reshaped the numbers. Discussion of market reactions and collapsing rate-cut odds. A profile on a prescient economist and China’s push to limit U.S. Treasuries. Quick rundowns of recent corporate earnings and concerns about private credit and Fed commentary. Community events and upcoming meetups get a final plug.
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Jobs Print Beats Expectations
- January jobs printed much stronger than expected, signaling headline strength in the labor market.
- The unemployment rate falling to 4.3% raises near-term interest-rate resilience for the Fed.
Revisions Reveal Hidden Weakness
- The big January headline masks deeper weakness because 862,000 jobs from last year were removed in revisions.
- Revisions imply 2025 averaged near‑zero monthly job growth, revealing a stalled labor market.
Rate Cut Odds Collapse
- Markets quickly repriced rate‑cut odds after the jobs print, pushing June cut probabilities sharply lower.
- The speaker argues this makes another Fed cut before Powell leaves unlikely.