The Fourcast

Can Mexico contain cartel violence before the World Cup?

10 snips
Feb 23, 2026
Benjamin Smith, historian of the Mexican drug trade. Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, expert on transnational crime and firearms trafficking. Deborah Bonello, investigative reporter on organised crime. They discuss the violent CJNG backlash after El Mencho’s death. They cover blockades and burnings, cartel show-of-force tactics, military raids and political timing, US-Mexico security ties, and risks as the World Cup approaches.
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INSIGHT

Mexico Shares Control With Cartels

  • Mexico experiences criminal governance where cartels have entrenched control across regions.
  • Deborah Bonello describes a shared control model and says citizens do not necessarily feel the government is in charge, citing airport and highway blockades after El Mencho's death.
INSIGHT

Cartels Use Public Chaos As a Power Signal

  • Cartels respond to leader decapitation with public displays of force to signal they won't be controlled.
  • Deborah Bonello explains Jalisco Nueva Generación 'calentando la plaza' by burning buses, blockading roads and showing criminal governance.
INSIGHT

Killing Leaders Triggers Internal War

  • Decapitation of cartel leadership sparks internal power struggles and localized wars.
  • Benjamin T. Smith links past arrests of Sinaloa leaders to an 18-month internal war with curfews and constant violence, forecasting similar Jalisco clashes.
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