The Grumpy Strategists America's wartime defense budget: $1.5 trillion to deliver a military able to fight everyone - except China.....
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Apr 9, 2026 Dr Marcus Hellyer, SAA head of research and defence analyst, discusses the US $1.5 trillion defence splash. He outlines the surge in missile and R&D spending and who wins the contracts. He highlights production bottlenecks, limits of deterrence versus China, and what this funding means for Australia’s procurement and alliance choices.
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Bunker Energy Fantasies And Shale Oil History
- Dr Marcus Hellyer jokes about converting the SAA bunker to self-sufficient energy with batteries, diesel and even shale oil to run a data centre.
- He references Glen Davis shale works and records that one WWII-era plant produced 45 million litres annually.
Stockpiles Still Insufficient For A China War
- Even if production ramps, quantities won't match the usage rates seen in the Iran conflict, let alone a China war; munitions consumed in days would be inadequate for a high-intensity peer conflict.
- PAC production targets jump from ~200 to 2,800 annually, an implausible near-term surge.
Fund The Industrial Base Before Buying More Weapons
- Invest in the industrial base proactively because buying plans require factories, suppliers and workforce scaling to convert dollars into weapons.
- The budget raises Industrial Base Analysis support from $1bn to $41bn to try to address these bottlenecks.