ABC News Daily Will there be enough fuel for Easter travel?
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Mar 31, 2026 Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Financial, explains fuel shortages tied to the Iran war and supply disruptions. He outlines which fuels will run short first and why prices could spike. He discusses potential rationing, government incentives risks, and what travelers should consider for the coming weeks.
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Structural Shortage Hits After Prewar Shipments Finish
- Australia is facing a forthcoming structural fuel shortage because much of the oil that arrived pre-war has now been used up.
- Saul Kavonic says about 20% of global oil supply is effectively shut off due to the Iran war, creating a crunch when pre-war shipments run out.
Jet Fuel And Diesel Are First In Line
- Jet fuel and diesel will be hit first because China has cut jet fuel shipments that normally flow to Australia.
- Kavonic warns jet fuel shortages will appear before broader petrol shortages, with diesel affecting farms and mines soon after.
Factor Fuel Risk Into Easter Travel Plans
- Factor rising prices into travel plans and consider conserving fuel where possible this Easter.
- Kavonic explicitly urges people to buy no more than they need and consider working from home or using public transport where feasible.