School of War Trump Heads to China: Who Has the Upper Hand? With Dan Blumenthal
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May 12, 2026 
Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on U.S.-China relations and Taiwan. He breaks down Trump's Beijing summit goals and how Iran tensions complicate them. Short takes on China’s leverage in the Middle East, economic and AI competition, and why Taiwan’s security and industrial supply chains matter for future power balances.
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China's Middle East Interest Is Strategic Influence
- China's Middle East strategy shifted from pure energy security to strategic presence, surveillance exports, and distracting the U.S. from the Indo‑Pacific.
- Blumenthal cites bases like Djibouti and exports of policing tech and AI as tools of influence.
China Has Built Sanctions Countermeasures
- China has built legal and commercial tools to resist U.S. sanctions and uses counter‑sanctions rhetorically, though Chinese firms currently comply when pressured.
- Blumenthal notes U.S. sanctions hit "teapot" refineries and China retains countermeasures in reserve.
China Diversified Away From Gulf Oil
- China diversified its energy away from the Middle East toward coal, Russian oil, renewables, and nuclear, reducing vulnerability to Gulf disruptions.
- Blumenthal credits electrification and EV supply chains for China's energy resilience and export strength.
