Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to break down what the numbers actually say about the U.S. economy—and why the headline optimism may be masking deeper problems. Zandi explains how upcoming tax refunds and delayed tax cuts will temporarily juice growth, even as that stimulus is entirely deficit-financed. Interest rate cuts are likely coming, but cautiously, and while AI stocks are soaring, the broader market is barely treading water. Beneath the surface, job creation has stalled, manufacturing jobs are shrinking under tariffs, and deportations aren’t translating into more employment for native-born workers as many expected.
The conversation widens to a fragile global outlook, with Trump-era protectionism accelerating deglobalization and reshaping trade, housing, and labor markets. Zandi details why college-educated workers are now seeing the sharpest rise in unemployment, how AI skills will define the next generation of jobs, and why renting often makes more sense than buying right now. Looking ahead to 2026, he warns of elevated geopolitical and financial-system risks, an AI-driven stock market that could be vulnerable to a correction, GDP growth likely under 3%, and a job market that may struggle to grow at all.
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Timeline:
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00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast
01:15 What do the numbers say about the state of the economy?
02:00 Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts about to start showing up
02:45 Tax refunds will add juice to the economy
03:30 All the “juice” is deficit financed and will only be temporary
04:30 Interest rates cuts likely to be cautious but will continue
05:45 AI stocks on fire, rest of the stocks are just up slightly
07:30 The economy isn’t creating any jobs despite investment
08:15 Job creation flatlined after “Liberation Day”
09:30 Manufacturing has been losing jobs due to tariffs
10:45 Are deportations creating more jobs for native born workers?
11:30 Jobs normally taken by foreign born workers aren’t being filled
12:45 Companies aren’t laying off, they’re just not hiring new employees
14:00 Trade deficit reportedly down, but is that actually a good thing?
14:45 Imports of pharmaceuticals have collapsed due to tariffs
15:30 Tariffs haven’t actually addressed the trade deficit
17:00 Tariff revenue shows the stated tariff rates aren’t holding true
18:15 Will the K-shaped economy continue through 2026?
19:45 Economy is affecting different income groups wildly different
21:00 Partisans believe economy is better depending on who is president
22:15 How do you price in Trump taking Greenland & ending NATO?
23:00 Economies around the world are in a similar, fragile place like the U.S.
24:00 The U.S. is rapidly pulling away from the rest of the world
25:00 Trump’s protectionism has been contagious to other countries
26:15 The world is preparing for a deglobalization
28:15 China hasn’t really taken advantage of U.S. global retreat
29:00 Countries that embrace immigration are the most successful
30:00 No country benefited more from globalization than China
31:45 USMCA has to be renegotiated, will probably remain status quo
34:00 Job market for new college graduates is very tough
34:45 Rise in unemployment is almost exclusively college educated
35:45 Proficiency in AI will be critical in future jobs
36:45 Classical higher education could make a comeback
38:45 Home ownership is unaffordable for many Americans
39:30 It’s better to rent than to buy in this market
40:30 There’s not a lot of buyers for prospective home sellers
41:15 Raising the capital gains exclusion could generate more sellers
43:45 There’s a chance the GOP could lose house majority before November
44:15 What risks that could upend the economy that concern you the most?
45:00 Geopolitical risk is very elevated
45:30 Stock market being buoyed by AI, could be ripe for correction
47:00 If there’s a major problem it will be in the financial system
47:30 If an AI company defaults, it could change the psychology of lenders
49:45 GDP growth will be under 3% in 2026
50:45 Will be tough to imagine positive job growth in 2026
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The Chuck ToddCast 